Can Trump Win a General Election?

Center for Vision and Values-This is not an argument for what should happen or what I’d like to happen in the November presidential election, but about what would likely happen in a Donald Trump versus Hillary Clinton race: Clinton would win, and probably by a wide margin.

I obviously can’t say what will happen with certainty because there are some events that cannot be determined. If Clinton is indicted or there’s a significant terrorist attack, the election dynamics change greatly.

But assuming Clinton is the Democratic candidate and there is no significant terrorist attack before election day, can Trump win in November?

I caution Trump supporters: You can’t just say that Trump will win. That claim must be based on evidence and recognized patterns of political behavior. Crowds at rallies and winning primary elections, especially with only a plurality of the vote, is not evidence that a candidate can win in a general election.

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